Why We Came Up Short
There are always many factors that contribute to why a hotly contested ballot measure ends up passing or failing. This election was unprecedented in many ways, which added uncertainty as to why voters made the choices that they did. That being said, after fully analyzing election results, turnout data, and exit polling, here are three main factors that we believe led to Prop. 15’s defeat.
Despite Biden’s win, the overall electorate in November was more Republican, whiter, and consisted of more homeowners than polls predicted. In California, Trump voters turned out in higher numbers than expected, especially in the rural areas. We expected Prop. 15 would lose in the Central Valley, Inland Empire, and other conservative pockets by a 60-40 margin. With the high conservative turnout, we lost many rural counties by a 70-30 margin. When the overall outcome is close, losing bigger in these areas makes a difference.
Not all Democrats who voted for Joe Biden voted for Prop. 15. The biggest drop off was among Democratic homeowners. Only 2 out of 3 people in this demographic voted ‘Yes’. Since we knew that Republicans were overwhelmingly against Prop. 15, and independents were split on the measure, we could not afford to lose 1 out of 3 Democratic homeowners.
A dominant story in 2020 was the economic uncertainty for individuals and small businesses brought about by the pandemic. The opposition was able to exploit people’s fear by pushing a clear message that Prop. 15 would increase the cost of living for everyone and hurt small businesses that were already struggling. This message resonated with enough persuadable voters who may have, under better economic circumstances, supported our measure.
Despite coming up short, our campaign brought Prop. 13 reform into the mainstream. This is a victory and marks a clear political shift in California. We dispelled the myth that it is an untouchable “third rail” of California politics. Coming within 2% of winning showed that bringing real structural change to our property tax system is within reach. In addition, we convinced nearly every statewide elected official, hundreds of local elected officials and the leaders of the state legislature to endorse the ballot measure. Prior to our campaign, elected officials were reluctant to support this issue. Their new found support puts our movement in a much stronger position moving forward.
Historically, when ballot measures aim to take on a controversial issue, most are not successful their first time. People have strong feelings about Prop. 13, so we’ve often compared this campaign to previous efforts to legalize same-sex marriage and recreational marijuana. California voters rejected both those ideas within the last 12 years, but today they are both rightly legal in our state. We believe that in a better economic environment we can be successful, especially because the need for funding for our schools and communities is now greater than ever. We remain committed to this fight and will be working to get Prop. 13 reform back on the ballot in the near future.
